The '92 Consensus: Short-Term Gain, Long-Term Pain

Finally… an article in the international press that gets it right about the emptiness of the “92 consensus." As admitted by the KMT's former National Security Council head Su Chi, who was involved at the time, there was never any "consensus" reached in negotiations held in 1992. The term "92 consensus" was fabricated 7 years later as a political fig leaf. If there was any consensus reached in 1992 at all, it was that both the KMT and the CCP agreed that "Taiwan," as a sovereign entity, will disappear in the future into some kind of future PRC/ROC cloud of One-Chineseness, with both the CCP and the KMT getting to claim that it has "reunited" the Motherland.

This "consensus," which the KMT claims allows both sides to swear their religious-like belief in a "One China," but without specifying what that means, has also allowed Taiwan's Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) the political cover they need to ink several economic and trade agreements in the last 2 years, leading to some short-term gains for both parties. However, these gains will only mask various serious long-term "pains" and problems, as the true meaninglessness of the "'92 consensus" will slowly reveal itself, exposing the KMT to greater local political anger and backlash, and enabling the CCP greater political leverage to enact its goals of annexing Taiwan.

First, the short-term gains. The fig leaf that is the "'92 consensus" allows the KMT and the CCP the political cover they need to sign deals, but also provides the KMT the local political cover they need to hide the fact that they've secretly agreed with the CCP to China's growing suzerainty over Taiwan. This cover is essential, as there would be NO deals with the CCP if the KMT had not tacitly agreed in some way to China's claims over Taiwan. But there would also be riots in the streets of Taiwan if the locals ever got wind of the KMT's undemocratic, behind-the-door, secret power-sharing deals with China.

Second, all the agreements of the last few years that have been enabled by repeating the "'92 consensus" mantra mostly benefit KMT-connected big businesses and KMT-connected developmentalist policies. Already the world's richest political party, these deals further entrench the KMT's domination of Taiwan's political landscape.

Third, the phony "'92 consensus" benefits China, as it allows China to sign deals with Taiwan's government, thus affirming the illusion that China seeks "peaceful" re-approchement with Taiwan, as part of its "peaceful rise." This is despite the 2005 "Anti-Secession Law," which threatens Taiwan will death and destruction unless is submits to China's suzerainty, China's continued belligerent language from both the CCP and PLA leadership, the continued double-digit yearly increase in China's military spending, all of which centers around invading Taiwan, and the increase to nearly 2000 Chinese missiles that still threaten Taiwan.

Lastly, allowing either side to operate under the "'92 consensus" ephemera benefits both the KMT's and the CCP's ideological goals. For the KMT, their ideological goals consist of a) never having to admit they lost the Chinese Civil War by maintaining their delusion of the continued existence of the long-defunct Republic of China, which, constitutionally consists of China, Tibet, East Turkestan (Xinjiang), Mongolia, and (by a 1949 ex-post-facto statute only) Taiwan, b) to maintain the political fiction in the minds of the Taiwanese that the ROC equals Taiwan (but to never admit that Taiwan = ROC), and c) just as the KMT's economic and political control of Taiwan has allowed them to utilize their vast network of connections to the island's resources to enrich both their political power-base and their party-coffers, the KMT's future goals are to further enrich themselves on the developing cross-strait CCP/KMT/organized crime nexus. The ideological goals of China are much more simple: to annex Taiwan to the PRC, and thereby maintain its political legitimacy and power within the People's Republic of China.

However, the short-term gains the "'92 consensus" has afforded both the CCP and the KMT will only delay confronting serious long-term political pains. First, how can you have consensus when all you agreed to was to "agree to disagree?" There is no THERE there.... no admission of either side's long-term political goals, nor any real agreed framework that can help either side sort out future political differences or offer any long-term guidance to future political negotiations.

Second, the economic agreements made between the KMT and the CCP in the last two years have denigrated Taiwan's sovereignty and will cement Taiwan in China's economic orbit, thus endangering Taiwan's hard-earned freedoms and fragile democracy. The democratic goals and aspirations of Taiwan’s 23 million people will be ignored as much as possible by both the KMT or the CCP, as they conflict with the ideological goals of these two nationalistic, autocratic, pro-China parties.

Third, China dominates world opinion about Taiwan's status via its Taiwan-isolating "united front strategy" all the while insisting to the world that "one China" really means the People's Republic of China, with Taiwan being a specially administered "region" of the PRC. (Luckily for the KMT, Taiwanese seem oblivious to how China or the rest of the world conceives of the Taiwan/China relationship, and are content with believing the KMT are somehow "pro-Taiwan." (Check out these deceptive KMT campaign posters from 2008 that were in a lovely shade of blue-green.)

Furthermore, as the CCP begins to put increasing pressure on the KMT to enter political discussions on such sensitive issues as a "peace" treaty to officially end the Chinese Civil War and to determine Taiwan's ultimate fate, how will the KMT maintain the fiction that is the ROC, and how do they maintain their economic and political control of Taiwan? The idiocy of the phony "'92 consensus" will unravel as China begins to pressure Taiwan for a "final solution" to end Taiwan's independence. As the CCP slowly squelches the last of Taiwan's sovereignty and international presence, as well as asserting greater influence of Taiwan's domestic affairs, the CCP may eventually call the KMT's bluff: the KMT may be finally forced to show the true weakness of its hand in this deal with the devil called the "'92 consensus."

How, at that point, will the KMT be able to maintain its belief in the continued existence or sovereignty of the ROC? Perhaps, if the KMT and the CCP ever do reach a political agreement, only the best of Chinese denialism and ass-covering, flim-flamming verbiage will work to maintain the delusions of ROC's continuation or sovereignty. However, given past CCP behavior towards their political rivals, the KMT, in a post-peace-agreement era, will be lucky to escape their eventual liquidation or imprisonment, at worst, or absorption into the CCP, at best.

And how about the hapless Taiwanese? Barring the ability of the KMT to keep Taiwan's populace perpetually hypnotized with continuos promises of future economic riches and benefits in the cargo cult that is their pro-China policies, the voters of Taiwan will (hopefully) finally be able to see how firmly the KMT have sold out Taiwan and placed Taiwan under China's control. Expect some political gnashing of teeth, rending of garments, and letting of blood. But by then, will it be too late for democracy in Taiwan and its people?